Far from a sure thing

When Ray Blanchard was first proposing his two type taxonomy of male to female transsexualism in the 1980's, the world was certainly a different place. For one thing, many gynephilics had married and were deep in hiding. They had suppressed their dysphoria and thought that marriage and children would cure them. I was among them. 

As a result some were presenting to clinics like the CAMH in midlife and in distress. The effects of testosterone had done their work and it was easier to typecast them as males suffering from a misdirected sex drive. 

Fast forward to today and the model looks atrocious. Not only are youth more open with their sexuality but all cases are presenting to clinicians far earlier than we did. The result is that transitions are far less easy to categorize into neat little packages within a theory where female gender dysphoria need not even be acknowledged.

If your science is good then social change won't impact it so significantly and while cross gender arousal is most certainly a thing, it is not so easily ascribed as a main motivator for gender transitions. Only the person themselves can understand their own experience and what means will make their dysphoria better. 

Some people have mistaken their sexual motivations as a sign that transition might be right only to discover that hormone treatments killed their desire for cross gender expression. Others have found relief in those treatments. 

Far right podcasts and channels still sell AGP as a sure thing because they need ammunition to discredit transgender people which is a shame when we should be only trying to offer helpful solutions to those who are searching for answers.